Do the Tories have any chance at the next General Election?

_{The Conservative Party may seem dead in the water, but climbing polls indicate they may have a growing chance of a marginal win at the next General Election. Many Tories are hoping for a '92 style victory, whilst many in all areas argue that the party is set to barely survive. What's really set to happen?}

A string of pollsters are showcasing the Tories making marginal gains in the polls, whilst Labour seems to be only just maintaining their grip on a heavy lead. In an example of this, respected pollster Redfield and Wilton Strategies  noted that within the last month, Starmer has presided in and 8% cut of Labour's overall lead, whilst his lead a a presumed better PM than Sunak has been slashed to 3%.

_{@RedfieldWilton}

But does this really indicate that the Tories are headed for a replica of the 1992 election, or are they still inevitably doomed to the backbenches? The answer is - as with so many things in politics - it's hard to tell. A week can be a long time in Westminster and any number of things can happen.

The Tories are set to be relatively safe throughout the Easter Recess, that is until Parliament returns on April 17. Following that, the inquiry into Dominic Raab's conduct is due to finish, which could be heavily damaging to the government, even more so considering one witness was quoted by Sky News as having said he 'ruined people's lives'. In addition to this, the government's Illegal Immigration Bill is set to work its way through Parliamentary process, which could be tricky for the party.

There are also still significant divisions, and the issue of Brexit seems to be rearing its ugly head once again, and could begin to divide the party further. 

In the long term, the prediction of many pollsters is that Labour will return to the Commons in 2024 with a minority or a small majority. Rash predictions crowd the media sphere and create a confusing image, despite the fact that predicted results are a little more boring that what is promoted.

Despite a possible chance of scaling back the next election, Sunak will have a very full in-tray. One wonders if the Tories have outstayed their current lease of Downing Street.